Menu | Explaining level changesSteve Whiteley v Richard Cheadle (Thu 03 Nov 2022)Match won by Steve Whiteley. Result: 15-4,15-8,15-4.Starting level for Steve Whiteley: 440, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Starting level for Richard Cheadle: 350, level confidence: 67%. Steve Whiteley to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Richard Cheadle. Steve Whiteley won all of the games and 74% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 181% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Whiteley played 181% better than Richard Cheadle in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Whiteley actually played at a level of 658 and Richard Cheadle at a level of 234. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 43% and 43% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Whiteley changes to +34% and Richard Cheadle changes to -43%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Whiteley becomes +17.3% and for Richard Cheadle becomes -22%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Steve Whiteley is +8.7% and for Richard Cheadle is -9.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Richard Cheadle is limited to -6.6% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Whiteley: 92%, Richard Cheadle: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Whiteley: 62%, Richard Cheadle: 55%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Steve Whiteley: 477, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Richard Cheadle: 328, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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