Menu | Explaining level changesAndy Jones v Peter Hesslewood (Fri 02 Sep 2022)Match won by Peter Hesslewood. Result: 7-11,7-11,9-11.Starting level for Andy Jones: 524, level confidence: 46%. Starting level for Peter Hesslewood: 1,087, level confidence: 49%. Peter Hesslewood to win as he is currently playing 107% better than Andy Jones. Peter Hesslewood won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Hesslewood played 47% better than Andy Jones in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Hesslewood was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 760 and 1,087 without affecting his level. In this case, Peter Hesslewood played at level 853 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Hesslewood would normally have been playing at level 942 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Jones played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Hesslewood changes to 0% and Andy Jones changes to +7.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Hesslewood becomes 0% and for Andy Jones becomes +5.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Fair Oak Boxes' so the adjustment for Peter Hesslewood is 0% and for Andy Jones is +2.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Hesslewood: 70%, Andy Jones: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Hesslewood: 59%, Andy Jones: 57%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andy Jones: 536, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Peter Hesslewood: 1,085, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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