Menu | Explaining level changesMichael King v Doug Parsons (Thu 25 Aug 2022)Match won by Michael King. Result: 12-15,15-3,11-15,15-8,15-6.Starting level for Michael King: 228, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Doug Parsons: 339, level confidence: 35%. Doug Parsons to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Michael King. Michael King won 60% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael King played 19% better than Doug Parsons in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael King actually played at a level of 303 and Doug Parsons at a level of 255. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael King changes to +14% and Doug Parsons changes to -26%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael King becomes +8.5% and for Doug Parsons becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Michael King is +4.3% and for Doug Parsons is -6.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Doug Parsons is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael King: 80%, Doug Parsons: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael King: 60%, Doug Parsons: 45%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Michael King: 237, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Doug Parsons: 322, level confidence: 45%. Notes
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