Menu | Explaining level changesTony Hooper v Nicola Rutherford (Tue 14 Jun 2022)Match won by Tony Hooper. Result: 15-6,15-7,15-9.Starting level for Tony Hooper: 1,040, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Starting level for Nicola Rutherford: 316, level confidence: 68%. Tony Hooper to win as he is currently playing 229% better than Nicola Rutherford. Tony Hooper won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tony Hooper played 105% better than Nicola Rutherford in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tony Hooper was taking it easy by anything up to 28%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 465 and 1,040 without affecting his level. In this case, Tony Hooper played at level 698 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tony Hooper would normally have been playing at level 754 (based on typical behaviour), Nicola Rutherford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tony Hooper changes to 0% and Nicola Rutherford changes to +4.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tony Hooper becomes 0% and for Nicola Rutherford becomes +3.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Tony Hooper is 0% and for Nicola Rutherford is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tony Hooper: 84%, Nicola Rutherford: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tony Hooper: 66%, Nicola Rutherford: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tony Hooper: 1,038, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Nicola Rutherford: 321, level confidence: 65%. Notes
|