Menu | Explaining level changesGeorge Harris v James Hill (Sun 12 Jun 2022)Match won by James Hill. Result: 11-7,11-9,9-11,13-15,8-11.Starting level for George Harris: 2,091, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for James Hill: 2,881, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. James Hill to win as he is currently playing 38% better than George Harris. James Hill won 60% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Hill played 8% better than George Harris in this match. As James Hill has played below his allowed range at 2,448, his level reduction is 8.4% before damping. On the assumption that James Hill would normally have been playing at level 2,788 (based on typical behaviour), George Harris played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 9.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Hill changes to -6.4% and George Harris changes to +9.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Hill becomes -3.2% and for George Harris becomes +4.6%. Given James Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Given George Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for James Hill is -1.4% and for George Harris is +2.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Hill: 90%, George Harris: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Hill: 79%, George Harris: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for George Harris: 2,135, level confidence: 75%. Final level for James Hill: 2,838, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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