Menu | Explaining level changesDale Woolmer v Nick Kidson (Mon 30 May 2022)Match won by Dale Woolmer. Result: 15-10,15-10,15-10.Starting level for Dale Woolmer: 956, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Nick Kidson: 1,346, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Nick Kidson to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Dale Woolmer. Dale Woolmer won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dale Woolmer played 52% better than Nick Kidson in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dale Woolmer actually played at a level of 1,397 and Nick Kidson at a level of 921. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dale Woolmer changes to +38% and Nick Kidson changes to -28%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dale Woolmer becomes +19.1% and for Nick Kidson becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Dale Woolmer is +9.5% and for Nick Kidson is -6.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nick Kidson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. As Dale Woolmer has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Nick Kidson's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dale Woolmer: 83%, Nick Kidson: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dale Woolmer: 57%, Nick Kidson: 63%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dale Woolmer: 1,046, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Nick Kidson: 1,344, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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