Menu | Explaining level changesMike Harris v Mike Gregory (Fri 13 May 2022)Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 11-5,9-11,11-4,11-7.Starting level for Mike Harris: 15,128, level confidence: 32%. Starting level for Mike Gregory: 6,486, level confidence: 41%. Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing 133% better than Mike Gregory. Mike Harris won 75% of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played 35% better than Mike Gregory in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mike Harris was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,608 and 15,128 without affecting his level. As Mike Harris has played below his allowed range at 9,175, his level reduction is 4.7% before damping. On the assumption that Mike Harris would normally have been playing at level 12,616 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Gregory played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to -3.1% and Mike Gregory changes to +9.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes -1.4% and for Mike Gregory becomes +3.5%. Given Mike Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 182% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Given Mike Gregory's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 71% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Mike Harris is 0% and for Mike Gregory is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 57%, Mike Gregory: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 43%, Mike Gregory: 49%. Final level for Mike Harris: 15,091, level confidence: 43%. Final level for Mike Gregory: 6,552, level confidence: 49%. Notes
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