Menu | Explaining level changesJames Hill v Lucas Van Zijl (Thu 12 May 2022)Match won by James Hill. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-8.Starting level for James Hill: 2,882, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Lucas Van Zijl: 920, level confidence: 66%. James Hill to win as he is currently playing 213% better than Lucas Van Zijl. James Hill won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Hill played 47% better than Lucas Van Zijl in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Hill was taking it easy by anything up to 26%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,364 and 2,882 without affecting his level. As James Hill has played below his allowed range at 1,360, his level reduction is 0.3% before damping. On the assumption that James Hill would normally have been playing at level 2,137 (based on typical behaviour), Lucas Van Zijl played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Hill changes to 0% and Lucas Van Zijl changes to +13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Hill becomes -0.1% and for Lucas Van Zijl becomes +7.9%. Given James Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for James Hill is 0% and for Lucas Van Zijl is +3.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Hill: 79%, Lucas Van Zijl: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Hill: 54%, Lucas Van Zijl: 56%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Hill: 2,881, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Lucas Van Zijl: 956, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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