Menu | Explaining level changesMike Harris v Mike Gregory (Wed 09 Feb 2022)Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 11-8,11-6,7-11,11-3.Starting level for Mike Harris: 15,164, level confidence: 40%. Starting level for Mike Gregory: 6,424, level confidence: 66%. Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing 136% better than Mike Gregory. Mike Harris won 75% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played 31% better than Mike Gregory in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mike Harris was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,531 and 15,164 without affecting his level. As Mike Harris has played below his allowed range at 8,952, his level reduction is 6.5% before damping. On the assumption that Mike Harris would normally have been playing at level 12,594 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Gregory played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to -4.2% and Mike Gregory changes to +8.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes -1.6% and for Mike Gregory becomes +3.1%. Given Mike Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 183% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Given Mike Gregory's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 70% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Mike Harris is 0% and for Mike Gregory is +0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 63%, Mike Gregory: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 47%, Mike Gregory: 61%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Harris: 15,128, level confidence: 47%. Final level for Mike Gregory: 6,486, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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