Menu | Explaining level changesPaul Buckner v Lazare Morel (Thu 02 Sep 2021)Match won by Paul Buckner. Result: 15-10,4-15,15-12,11-15,15-9.Starting level for Paul Buckner: 2,782, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Lazare Morel: 2,218, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Paul Buckner to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Lazare Morel. Paul Buckner won 60% of the games and 50% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Buckner played 7% better than Lazare Morel in this match. As Paul Buckner has played below his allowed range at 2,517, his level reduction is 6% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Buckner would normally have been playing at level 2,735 (based on typical behaviour), Lazare Morel played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 6.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Buckner changes to -5.3% and Lazare Morel changes to +6.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Buckner becomes -2.9% and for Lazare Morel becomes +3.5%. Given Paul Buckner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Given Lazare Morel's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Paul Buckner is -1.2% and for Lazare Morel is +1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Buckner: 84%, Lazare Morel: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Buckner: 78%, Lazare Morel: 78%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Buckner: 2,744, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Lazare Morel: 2,252, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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