Menu | Explaining level changesRoger Camp v Mike Martin (Mon 16 Aug 2021)Match won by Roger Camp. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-5.Starting level for Roger Camp: 2,719, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Mike Martin: 2,403, level confidence: 10%. Roger Camp to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Mike Martin. Roger Camp won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roger Camp played 120% better than Mike Martin in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Roger Camp actually played at a level of 3,791 and Mike Martin at a level of 1,723. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roger Camp changes to +37% and Mike Martin changes to -37%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roger Camp becomes +12.7% and for Mike Martin becomes -13%. Given Roger Camp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Given Mike Martin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.8% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Roger Camp is +5.6% and for Mike Martin is -5.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mike Martin is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roger Camp: 32%, Mike Martin: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roger Camp: 23%, Mike Martin: 23%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Roger Camp: 2,867, level confidence: 23%. Final level for Mike Martin: 2,285, level confidence: 23%. Notes
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