Menu | Explaining level changesPaul Buckner v Nick Kidson (Sat 17 Jul 2021)Match won by Paul Buckner. Result: 15-2,15-3,15-4.Starting level for Paul Buckner: 2,361, level confidence: 88%. Set manually. Starting level for Nick Kidson: 1,466, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Paul Buckner to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Nick Kidson. Paul Buckner won all of the games and 83% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 400% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Buckner played 400% better than Nick Kidson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Buckner actually played at a level of 4,160 and Nick Kidson at a level of 832. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 76% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 56% and 56% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Buckner changes to +54% and Nick Kidson changes to -56%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Buckner becomes +18.2% and for Nick Kidson becomes -23%. Given Paul Buckner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Paul Buckner is +8.5% and for Nick Kidson is -10.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nick Kidson is limited to -5.2% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Buckner: 94%, Nick Kidson: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Buckner: 53%, Nick Kidson: 52%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Buckner: 2,558, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Nick Kidson: 1,391, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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