Menu | Explaining level changesPaul Buckner v Ritchie Beckham (Sat 12 Jun 2021)Match won by Paul Buckner. Result: 15-10,15-8,15-9.Starting level for Paul Buckner: 2,381, level confidence: 43%. Starting level for Ritchie Beckham: 1,260, level confidence: 44%. Paul Buckner to win as he is currently playing 89% better than Ritchie Beckham. Paul Buckner won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Buckner played 67% better than Ritchie Beckham in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Paul Buckner was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,802 and 2,381 without affecting his level. In this case, Paul Buckner played at level 2,115 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Buckner would normally have been playing at level 2,130 (based on typical behaviour), Ritchie Beckham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Buckner changes to 0% and Ritchie Beckham changes to +0.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Buckner becomes 0% and for Ritchie Beckham becomes +0.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Paul Buckner is 0% and for Ritchie Beckham is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Buckner: 66%, Ritchie Beckham: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Buckner: 62%, Ritchie Beckham: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Buckner: 2,377, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Ritchie Beckham: 1,261, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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