Menu | Explaining level changesRachel Lambert v Barney Scott (Tue 25 Feb 2020)Match won by Rachel Lambert. Result: 15-4,15-4,15-9.Starting level for Rachel Lambert: 761, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Barney Scott: 553, level confidence: 55%. Rachel Lambert to win as she is currently playing 38% better than Barney Scott. Rachel Lambert won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 165% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rachel Lambert played 165% better than Barney Scott in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rachel Lambert actually played at a level of 1,055 and Barney Scott at a level of 399. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 32% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rachel Lambert changes to +30% and Barney Scott changes to -32%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rachel Lambert becomes +15.7% and for Barney Scott becomes -17%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Rachel Lambert is +7.8% and for Barney Scott is -7.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Barney Scott is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rachel Lambert: 77%, Barney Scott: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rachel Lambert: 56%, Barney Scott: 54%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rachel Lambert: 819, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Barney Scott: 526, level confidence: 54%. Notes
|