Menu | Explaining level changesCharles Davies v Tony Hooper (Mon 18 Nov 2019)Match won by Tony Hooper. Result: 15-5,5-15,13-15,13-15.Starting level for Charles Davies: 1,888, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Tony Hooper: 1,140, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Charles Davies to win as he is currently playing 66% better than Tony Hooper. Tony Hooper won 75% of the games and 52% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tony Hooper played 20% better than Charles Davies in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tony Hooper actually played at a level of 1,605 and Charles Davies at a level of 1,341. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tony Hooper changes to +30% and Charles Davies changes to -30%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tony Hooper becomes +14.9% and for Charles Davies becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Tony Hooper is +7.4% and for Charles Davies is -5.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Charles Davies is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tony Hooper: 91%, Charles Davies: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tony Hooper: 64%, Charles Davies: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charles Davies: 1,795, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Tony Hooper: 1,223, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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