Menu | Explaining level changesDiarmuid Redican v Peter Karran (Sat 19 Oct 2019)Match won by Peter Karran. Result: 7-15,6-15,9-15.Starting level for Diarmuid Redican: 214, level confidence: 11%. Starting level for Peter Karran: 978, level confidence: 62%. Peter Karran to win as he is currently playing 357% better than Diarmuid Redican. Peter Karran won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Karran played 105% better than Diarmuid Redican in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Karran was taking it easy by anything up to 39%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 283 and 978 without affecting his level. In this case, Peter Karran played at level 511 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Karran would normally have been playing at level 595 (based on typical behaviour), Diarmuid Redican played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Karran changes to 0% and Diarmuid Redican changes to +7.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Karran becomes 0% and for Diarmuid Redican becomes +5.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Finchley Manor Boxes' so the adjustment for Peter Karran is 0% and for Diarmuid Redican is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Karran: 78%, Diarmuid Redican: 33%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Karran: 52%, Diarmuid Redican: 22%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Diarmuid Redican: 219, level confidence: 22%. Final level for Peter Karran: 977, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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