Menu | Explaining level changesSteve Thorndike v Martin Bray (Sun 06 Oct 2019)Match won by Steve Thorndike. Result: 3-1.Starting level for Steve Thorndike: 487, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Martin Bray: 220, level confidence: 30%. Steve Thorndike to win as he is currently playing 121% better than Martin Bray. Steve Thorndike won 75% of the games. There are no points scores. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Steve Thorndike was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 323 and 487 without affecting his level. As Steve Thorndike has played below his allowed range at 298, his level reduction is 8.4% before damping. On the assumption that Steve Thorndike would normally have been playing at level 413 (based on typical behaviour), Martin Bray played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 15% respectively. Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 12%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Thorndike changes to -2.1% and Martin Bray changes to +12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Thorndike becomes -2.1% and for Martin Bray becomes +7.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Wendover Boxes' so the adjustment for Steve Thorndike is -1% and for Martin Bray is +3.6%. As Martin Bray has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Steve Thorndike's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Thorndike: 78%, Martin Bray: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Thorndike: 59%, Martin Bray: 41%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Steve Thorndike: 486, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Martin Bray: 228, level confidence: 41%. Notes
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