Menu | Explaining level changesGordon Findlay v Steve Thorndike (Sat 31 Aug 2019)Match won by Gordon Findlay. Result: 3-1.Starting level for Gordon Findlay: 331, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Steve Thorndike: 503, level confidence: 67%. Steve Thorndike to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Gordon Findlay. Gordon Findlay won 75% of the games. There are no points scores. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gordon Findlay actually played at a level of 456 and Steve Thorndike at a level of 365. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively. Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 23%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gordon Findlay changes to +23% and Steve Thorndike changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gordon Findlay becomes +12.6% and for Steve Thorndike becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Wendover Boxes' so the adjustment for Gordon Findlay is +6.3% and for Steve Thorndike is -5.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Steve Thorndike is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gordon Findlay: 82%, Steve Thorndike: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gordon Findlay: 59%, Steve Thorndike: 60%. A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Gordon Findlay: 351, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Steve Thorndike: 488, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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