Menu | Explaining level changesMike Martin v Nigel Bigg (Wed 28 Aug 2019)Match won by Mike Martin. Result: 11-6,9-11,11-4,11-4.Starting level for Mike Martin: 2,372, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Nigel Bigg: 1,231, level confidence: 63%. Mike Martin to win as he is currently playing 93% better than Nigel Bigg. Mike Martin won 75% of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 68% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Martin played 39% better than Nigel Bigg in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mike Martin was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,765 and 2,372 without affecting his level. As Mike Martin has played below his allowed range at 1,739, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Mike Martin would normally have been playing at level 2,108 (based on typical behaviour), Nigel Bigg played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 7.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Martin changes to -1% and Nigel Bigg changes to +7.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Martin becomes -0.7% and for Nigel Bigg becomes +4.9%. Given Mike Martin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Mike Martin is -0.3% and for Nigel Bigg is +2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Martin: 83%, Nigel Bigg: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Martin: 71%, Nigel Bigg: 67%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Martin: 2,370, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Nigel Bigg: 1,264, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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