Menu | Explaining level changesMike Martin v Roger Camp (Fri 19 Jul 2019)Match won by Roger Camp. Result: 2-11,9-11,8-11.Starting level for Mike Martin: 2,433, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Starting level for Roger Camp: 1,930, level confidence: 56%. Mike Martin to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Roger Camp. Roger Camp won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roger Camp played 74% better than Mike Martin in this match. An upset! Roger Camp has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 2179. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Roger Camp actually played at a level of 3,034 and Mike Martin at a level of 1,747. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roger Camp changes to +37% and Mike Martin changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roger Camp becomes +13.7% and for Mike Martin becomes -8.4%. Given Roger Camp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.5% has been applied to his level change. Given Mike Martin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.3% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Roger Camp is +6.6% and for Mike Martin is -3.7%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Roger Camp is +20%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roger Camp: 75%, Mike Martin: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roger Camp: 51%, Mike Martin: 63%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Martin: 2,352, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Roger Camp: 2,325, level confidence: 51%. Notes
|