Menu | Explaining level changesDamian Cannon v Zubid Rehman (Mon 26 Nov 2018)Match won by Zubid Rehman. Result: 10-15,13-15,15-17.Starting level for Damian Cannon: 1,008, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Starting level for Zubid Rehman: 2,294, level confidence: 10%. Zubid Rehman to win as he is currently playing 128% better than Damian Cannon. Zubid Rehman won all of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zubid Rehman played 34% better than Damian Cannon in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Zubid Rehman was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,488 and 2,294 without affecting his level. As Zubid Rehman has played below his allowed range at 1,418, his level reduction is 4.9% before damping. On the assumption that Zubid Rehman would normally have been playing at level 1,929 (based on typical behaviour), Damian Cannon played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zubid Rehman changes to -3.3% and Damian Cannon changes to +1.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zubid Rehman becomes -2.3% and for Damian Cannon becomes +1.5%. Given Zubid Rehman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.7% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Finchley Manor Boxes' so the adjustment for Zubid Rehman is -1.1% and for Damian Cannon is +0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zubid Rehman: 32%, Damian Cannon: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zubid Rehman: 24%, Damian Cannon: 71%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Damian Cannon: 1,014, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Zubid Rehman: 2,266, level confidence: 24%. Notes
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