Menu | Explaining level changesDamian Eatwell v Richard Togneri (Thu 22 Nov 2018)Match won by Richard Togneri. Result: 9-11,10-12,6-11.Starting level for Damian Eatwell: 503, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Richard Togneri: 451, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Damian Eatwell to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Richard Togneri. Richard Togneri won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Togneri played 42% better than Damian Eatwell in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Togneri actually played at a level of 568 and Damian Eatwell at a level of 399. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Togneri changes to +20% and Damian Eatwell changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Togneri becomes +10.9% and for Damian Eatwell becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Aylesbury Boxes' so the adjustment for Richard Togneri is +5.5% and for Damian Eatwell is -6.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Damian Eatwell is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Togneri: 86%, Damian Eatwell: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Togneri: 69%, Damian Eatwell: 61%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Damian Eatwell: 478, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Richard Togneri: 475, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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