Menu | Explaining level changesIan Smithies v Graham Woodage (Wed 21 Nov 2018)Match won by Ian Smithies. Result: 11-7,11-1,11-6.Starting level for Ian Smithies: 398, level confidence: 90%. Set manually. Starting level for Graham Woodage: 392, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Ian Smithies to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Graham Woodage. Ian Smithies won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Smithies played 136% better than Graham Woodage in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Smithies actually played at a level of 606 and Graham Woodage at a level of 257. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 52% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Smithies changes to +45% and Graham Woodage changes to -52%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Smithies becomes +22.2% and for Graham Woodage becomes -25%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Aylesbury Boxes' so the adjustment for Ian Smithies is +11.1% and for Graham Woodage is -11%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ian Smithies is limited to +10% and Graham Woodage is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Smithies: 95%, Graham Woodage: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Smithies: 62%, Graham Woodage: 58%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ian Smithies: 437, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Graham Woodage: 373, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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