Menu | Explaining level changesGraham Woodage v Simon Honour (Thu 27 Sep 2018)Match won by Graham Woodage. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-3.Starting level for Graham Woodage: 386, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Simon Honour: 245, level confidence: 64%. Graham Woodage to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Simon Honour. Graham Woodage won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Graham Woodage played 200% better than Simon Honour in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Graham Woodage actually played at a level of 533 and Simon Honour at a level of 178. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Graham Woodage changes to +28% and Simon Honour changes to -29%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Graham Woodage becomes +15% and for Simon Honour becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Aylesbury Boxes' so the adjustment for Graham Woodage is +7.5% and for Simon Honour is -7.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simon Honour is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Graham Woodage: 81%, Simon Honour: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Graham Woodage: 59%, Simon Honour: 58%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Graham Woodage: 414, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Simon Honour: 236, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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