Menu | Explaining level changesMahesh Tailor v Danny McCabe (Fri 07 Sep 2018)Match won by Mahesh Tailor. Result: 15-8,15-9,15-13.Starting level for Mahesh Tailor: 1,005, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Danny McCabe: 493, level confidence: 51%. Mahesh Tailor to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Danny McCabe. Mahesh Tailor won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Tailor played 52% better than Danny McCabe in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mahesh Tailor was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 712 and 1,005 without affecting his level. In this case, Mahesh Tailor played at level 809 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mahesh Tailor would normally have been playing at level 875 (based on typical behaviour), Danny McCabe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Tailor changes to 0% and Danny McCabe changes to +5.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Tailor becomes 0% and for Danny McCabe becomes +4.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Finchley Manor Boxes' so the adjustment for Mahesh Tailor is 0% and for Danny McCabe is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Tailor: 89%, Danny McCabe: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Tailor: 77%, Danny McCabe: 62%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mahesh Tailor: 1,003, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Danny McCabe: 503, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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