Menu | Explaining level changesGeraldine Ambrose v Sam Hughes (Thu 26 Jul 2018)Match won by Geraldine Ambrose. Result: 11-1,11-2,11-4.Starting level for Geraldine Ambrose: 276, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Sam Hughes: 115, level confidence: 70%. Geraldine Ambrose to win as he is currently playing 140% better than Sam Hughes. Geraldine Ambrose won all of the games and 83% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Geraldine Ambrose played 371% better than Sam Hughes in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Geraldine Ambrose actually played at a level of 387 and Sam Hughes at a level of 82. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 40% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Geraldine Ambrose changes to +24% and Sam Hughes changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Geraldine Ambrose becomes +13.2% and for Sam Hughes becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Aylesbury Boxes' so the adjustment for Geraldine Ambrose is +6.6% and for Sam Hughes is -6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Sam Hughes is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Geraldine Ambrose: 82%, Sam Hughes: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Geraldine Ambrose: 59%, Sam Hughes: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Geraldine Ambrose: 294, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Sam Hughes: 109, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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