Menu | Explaining level changesRob Bowrey v Chris Herbert (Mon 11 Sep 2017)Match won by Rob Bowrey. Result: 5-1.Starting level for Rob Bowrey: 947, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Chris Herbert: 449, level confidence: 46%. Rob Bowrey to win as he is currently playing 111% better than Chris Herbert. Rob Bowrey won 83% of the games. There are no points scores. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 35%. This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rob Bowrey was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 653 and 947 without affecting his level. As Rob Bowrey has played below his allowed range at 629, his level reduction is 3.8% before damping. On the assumption that Rob Bowrey would normally have been playing at level 816 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Herbert played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 10.8% respectively. Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 7.9%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Bowrey changes to -1.2% and Chris Herbert changes to +7.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Bowrey becomes -1.2% and for Chris Herbert becomes +5.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Rob Bowrey is -0.6% and for Chris Herbert is +2.7%. As Chris Herbert has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Rob Bowrey's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Bowrey: 87%, Chris Herbert: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Bowrey: 70%, Chris Herbert: 54%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rob Bowrey: 946, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Chris Herbert: 460, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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